What to expect…after November 5th
Research has shown that general politics don’t really play too much into people’s day to day real estate decisions, but during an election year, many buyers will wait until after the election to purchase a home. Studies reveal that buyers want more certainty and security when making such a big financial decision. - and we all know things that past few years have been all over the place. The outcome of the 2024 election could shape the real estate market in Hays County, Texas, as some political decisions influence interest rates, housing policies, and the broader economy.
Here's a look at the factors that could impact the local market post-election:
Interest Rates and Mortgage Policies
A change in political leadership can influence Federal Reserve policies, which directly affect interest rates. If rates remain stable or decrease, it could spur demand as buyers seek to lock in favorable terms. Conversely, if the Fed tightens rates to combat inflation, this could dampen home-buying activity.
For Buyers: Lower interest rates could mean more affordability, especially for first-time buyers. If rates increase, those already pre-qualified might feel pressure to act quickly.
For Sellers: A rate increase could slow buyer interest, while a decrease might create more competition among buyers, driving up prices.
Housing Supply and Development
Hays County has seen significant growth due to its proximity to Austin and San Antonio. Future policies could either bolster or hinder development projects. If pro-housing policies are adopted, the county may experience more rapid development, expanding the available inventory. However, policies aimed at curbing urban sprawl or protecting land may slow down construction, affecting housing availability.
For Buyers: A higher housing supply might lead to more choices and potentially lower prices.
For Sellers: Limited supply could result in higher prices, favoring those looking to sell.
Property Taxes and Local Policies
Real estate taxes are always a key issue in local elections. If local leaders focus on reducing property tax burdens, this could encourage homeownership and increase demand. However, if property taxes rise to fund local infrastructure projects or schools, this could impact affordability.
For Buyers: Lower taxes could ease the burden of homeownership, while higher taxes could stretch budgets.
For Sellers: A higher tax environment might deter buyers, reducing demand.
Economic Growth and Job Market
Hays County’s economy is closely tied to Austin’s tech and education sectors, and policies that stimulate economic growth will directly affect real estate. If the post-election environment supports job growth and investment in infrastructure, this could increase housing demand. On the other hand, an economic slowdown or uncertainty could cool the market.
For Buyers and Sellers: A strong economy boosts confidence in buying and selling, while economic downturns may make both parties more cautious.
Investor Activity
Political and economic shifts may either attract or deter real estate investors. A favorable post-election economic climate could lead to more investment in rental properties, which could increase housing prices. On the other hand, uncertainty may cause investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
Recent ABOR information shows:
During COVID our market appreciated 40% and we have only gone down an average of 12% since (varies by area and floorplan). We also need to remember that real estate during COVID is an anomaly and can't realistically be included in market data.
We are sitting at a 13 year high of inventory (active listings).
Move in ready homes are outperforming those that need work simply because buyers don't have extra cash to put into a home, especially with home prices still high and a higher interest rate of 6.82% as of today.
More than the rate, it's pricing that will bring buyers
The 2024 election may bring changes, but the key factors to watch in Hays County’s real estate market will be interest rates, housing policies, and economic growth. Both buyers and sellers should keep a close eye on how these variables evolve post-election to make informed decisions.